Global Briefing: China emissions on track to peak by mid 2020s
Plus Ford’s major $11.8bn EV investment in the US, Germany’s election fallout, the latest on India’s NDC, and all the top green business news from around the world this week
China’s emissions on track to peak by mid-2020s
China’s CO2 emissions are on track to peak by the mid-2020s, ahead of its stated target of 2030, according to the IEA.
The findings, taken from the IEA’s An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China report, suggests Beijing’s existing policies will also give the country the capacity to accelerate its transition to clean energy sources and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.
Analysis of China’s latest five-year plan for 2021-25 shows its decarbonisation targets will, if met, result in CO2 emissions from fuel consumption hitting a plateau in the middle of this decade and then undergoing a modest decline by 2030.
The IEA has now challenged Beijing to further accelerate its emissions-cutting plans. “China has the means and capabilities to accomplish an even faster clean energy transition that would result in greater social and economic benefits for the Chinese people and also increase the world’s chances of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C,” IEA’ s executive director Fatih Birol said.
The energy sector is responsible for almost 90 per cent of China’s greenhouse gas emissions. The country’s existing policies rely on energy efficiency, growth in renewables and cuts to coal use to achieve peak CO2 emissions by 2030. The current trajectory, in the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), sees solar becoming the country’s largest primary energy source by around 2045.
Meanwhile, demand for coal, oil and natural gas fall by 80 per cent, 60 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively, by 2060 compared with last year.
The IEA now said China has the technical capacity, economic means and policy experience to go faster, as its new emissions trading scheme (ETS) and power market reforms show. Under this Accelerated Transition Scenario (ATS), energy sector CO2 emissions in 2030 are more than two gigatonnes or almost 20 per cent lower than today thanks to a faster decline in coal use, stronger deployment of existing low-carbon technologies and quicker efficiency gains, it said.
Hopes grow that India could enhance carbon targets at COP26
India could be set to update its voluntary emissions-reduction commitments in the run up to COP26, or even at the summit in Glasgow itself, in what would be a major diplomatic boost for the Paris Agreement, according to the Hindustan Times.
“There are talks of announcing a slightly updated target taking into account our commitments on renewable energy,” an official at the country’s environment ministry told the newspaper. “This may happen at COP26.”
It follows a joint statement issued last week by Quad countries — Australia, India, Japan, and the US — which said that they all intended to update or communicate ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement before the summit, although it remains to be seen what form such updated commitments might take in practice.
“The statement states what Quad countries intend to do,” another unnamed environment ministry official told the newspaper. “We cannot confirm or deny it because the decision on NDC is taken at the highest level because it involves many sectors.”
Ford to invest $11.8bn in scaling up EV production in USA
Ford is planning to build its biggest ever factory in Tennessee, as part of $11.4bn investment geared towards electric vehicle (EV) production in the USA, it announced this week.
The investment will also see the development of two battery factories in Kentucky, it said on Wednesday, as part of its plan to build zero emission cars and pickup trucks “at scale” for American customers, in a move it said would create 11,000 jobs.
Ford, like carmaker rivals GM and Stellantis, hopes around half of the cars it sells by 2030 will be zero emission, although there remains doubt over the additional government investment required to make it the plans a reality.
“This is our moment – our biggest investment ever – to help build a better future for America,” said Jim Farley, Ford’s president and chief executive in a statement. “We are moving now to deliver breakthrough electric vehicles for the many rather than the few.”
Ford said its Tennessee factory – called Blue Oval City – will cover a six-square-mile area and build next-generation electric pickup trucks and batteries from 2025. Its battery parks in Kentucky will power a new line-up of Ford and Lincoln EVs.
Ford has already increased investment in EV production at its Texas and Michigan plants. The new investments are to be made in partnership with SK Innovation, a South Korean battery maker.
Green policies to play key role in German coalition talks
Climate and energy policies are expected to loom large in talks to determine which parties will form Germany’s next government, after last week’s election saw the Green Party achieve by far its biggest ever result, accoring to the journal Nature.
After the country’s much-anticipated federal election on 26 September saw the centre-left Social Democrats narrowly beat outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democrats, talks between parties over buiding a coalion government have already started.
The leaders of the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats have each claimed that they have a mandate to form a new government. The two parties are unlikely to continue their coalition – which has governed Germany for more than a decade – and a new government, which ever of the two parties leads it, could well include the Green Party and the Liberal Free Democrats, which won 14.8 per cent and 11.5 per cent of votes respectively, according to preliminary results. However, it could take weeks or months of discussions before a coalition is formed.
Climate change was a key issue in this election, and the new government will be tasked with laying out a plan to achieve the country’s current climate goals — a 65 per cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2030, and to be carbon neutral 2045.
“Greens and liberals have different preferences as to the mix of market-based instruments, subsidies and regulatory law to achieve carbon neutrality over the next few decades,” Ottmar Edenhofer, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
The Green Party, meanwhile, wants to revise Germany’s renewable-energy law to increase the use of low-carbon energy in the transport and industry sectors, and for heating. It also proposes bringing forward a planned coal phase-out by eight years, to 2030. The liberals are reluctant to tackle climate change through regulatory law or state subsidies on green technologies. Instead, they want to extend national and European emissions-trading systems to cover all sectors of the economy, including transport.
Both the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats have also pledged to step up climate action in line with the European Union’s climate goals and the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, but a new government may now not be formed to lead Germany before the crucial COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in two months’ time.
Sri Lanka to cease new coal power projects
Sri Lanka has pledges to cease building new coal-fired power plants as part of its new taret to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the country’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa said in an address to the United Nations International Energy Forum last Friday, according to Reuters.
The country has also set a target of achieving 70 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030.
Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, and small and large hydro power plants together account for half of the island nation’s installed electricity capacity, with coal and oil-fired power accounting for the rest, the news agency said. Renewable and hydroelectric power currently account for about 35 per cent of the country’s power demand.
“Our aim is to transition away from fossil fuels, promote decarbonisation, and make Sri Lanka a carbon neutral country by 2050,” Rajapaksa said.
Malaysian PM touts 2050 carbon neutral pledge
Malaysia remains committed to its target of becoming a carbon neutral nation by 2050, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob has said.
In comments reported by Malaysia’s The Star newspaper, Ismail Sabri said efforts to accelerate the growth of the country’s green economy, improvements in energy sustainability and transformation of the water sector would remain at the core of the country’s socio-economic development.
The government will therefore take into account environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles in its decision-making process, he added.
Economic instruments such as carbon pricing and carbon tax will now be introduced, while details of other measures for carbon reduction will be announced once the low-carbon long-term development strategy study is finalised by the end of 2022.
“The government has given a commitment to no longer build new coal-fired power plants. I realise this requires a concerted effort as well as a high level of green commitment and investment,” Ismail Sabri said. “However, I am confident that with the involvement of the Malaysian Family spirit, this aspiration is not an empty dream and this commitment will ensure that Malaysia is at par with the efforts of other countries to achieve global goals in tackling climate change and enhancing the country’s competitiveness,” he said.
Australia toasts fresh renewables record
The share of renewables on Australia’s main grid, the National Electricity Market, hit a record 61.7 per cent last week, just four days after setting a new peak of 60.1 per cent, Renew Economy reports.
Favourable wind and solar conditions, which provided a record share of 59.6 per cent, in addition to the contribution of hydropower, helped the renewable power reach its record share. Lower demand for power due to a public holiday in the state of Victoria, may also have played a part, the news site said.
The OpenNEM data shows that at the start of September, the share of renewables in Australia was 57.1 per cent, indicating a jump of 4.5 per cent in less than four weeks.
Records are expected to continue tumbling over coming weeks, due to the mild temperatures, the growing amounts of wind and solar capacity available – particularly rooftop solar compared to the same time last year – and fewer restrictions on the grid, according to Renew Economy.
The Australian Energy Market Operator predicts that by 2025, the share of renewables will reach 100 per cent at certain times.
Rich Nations pitch $5bn to fund south africa coal exit
Envoys from some of the world’s richest nations have met South African cabinet ministers to discuss a climate deal that could channel nearly $5bn towards ending the country’s reliance on coal, Bloomberg reports.
The funding is likely to largely comprise of loans, and the delegation is reportedly trying to hammer out an agreement that can be announced at COP26 in Glasgow in November, according to the news site.
“We need certainty and predictability of the quantum of financing available to us, to accelerate this transition,” South Africa’s environment department is quoted as stating. “We do need an irrevocable agreement that we can sign at COP26 where our commitments, as all parties, are clear.”
