‘Credibility gap’: Climate experts tell COP26 the world is still on track for 2.4C of warming
Lack of strong 2030 climate plans puts world on course for a dangerous 2.4C of warming by 2100, latest analysis from influential Climate Action Tracker warns
Climate experts have accused governments of overseeing a “massive credibility, action and commitment gap” at COP26, warning that even with the latest flurry of eye-catching pledges made in Glasgow, the planet is still likely on course for at least 2.4C of warming by the end of the century.
A sobering new analysis released by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) initiative this afternoon estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions will still be around twice as high as they need to be in 2030 if the world is to stand a chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C, as is set out in the Paris Agreement.
The projections are in stark contrast to a snap analysis of new net zero commitments from the International Energy Agency last week, which suggested that if governments delivered on their new targets they could keep temperature increases to around 1.8C – a remarkable improvement on previous projections, which gave the COP26 Summit a major dose of optimism at their halfway point.
But today’s analysis from CAT emphasises that while 140 governments have now announced mid-century net zero targets covering 90 per cent of global emissions, short term pledges and detailed policies are still hugely underpowered for the current decade, which is regarded as mission critical to keeping the chances of a 1.5C world the table.
In order to stand a 66 per cent chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C and avoiding the worst climate impacts, scientists have stressed that greenhouse gas emissions should fall by 45 per cent by 2030. Yet UN analysis this week has projected a 16 per cent rise in emissions is currently on the cards by the end of the decade based on current national climate action plans.
As such, CAT – an influential independent group of scientists and experts led by several non-profit organisations – warned that while welcome the various commitments on coal power, methane, finance, and net zero announced so far at the UN Summit in Glasgow risk bringing “false hope of the reality of the warming resulting from government inaction”.
“The vast majority of 2030 actions and targets are inconsistent with net zero goals: there’s a nearly one degree gap between government current policies and their net zero goals,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a CAT partner organisation. “It’s all very well for leaders to claim they have a net zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action. Glasgow has a serious credibility gap.
Ahead of COP26, a UN analysis suggested current climate targets and policies could put the world on course for 2.7C of warming by the end of the century. The analysis suggested progress has been made since previous, higher temperature rise projections, yet also showed that decarbonisation plans remain a long way short of what is required to deliver on the Paris Agreement goals of keeping temperature increases ‘well below 2C’.
But last week the IEA released a far more optimistic projection, which sought to take into account multilateral pledges made in Glasgow to cut methane emissions by 30 per cent by the end of the decade, as well as global commitments on deforestation, and new national pledges such as India’s 2070 net zero goal and renewable energy targets for 2030. Should countries follow through on this promised action, the IEA said 1.8C of warming could well be achieved, although the assessment received pushback from some scientists who warned it presents an overly-optimistic scenario.
The CAT analysis solidifies these concerns, arguing that while recent announcements from some governments have narrowed the 2030 emissions gap by 15 to 17 per cent over the past year, too few countries have set out credible short term emissions targets, and any progress seen over the past year is still far away from what is required.
Based on current 2030 pledges alone – not including longer-term targets – global temperature rise would be on course to hit 2.4C in 2100 if these pledges are met, it estimates.
Announcements made in Glasgow aimed at reducing methane and deforestation last week also only narrow the emissions gap slightly, if at all, it added.
Meanwhile, CAT’s projected warming from current policies, which excludes proposed policies, points to an even higher warming trajectory of 2.7C, which suggests new policies have delivered only a 0.2C improvement over the past year.
However, CAT’s assessment does point to progress made over the past year. When taking into account all binding and non-binding long-term and short term targets from governments worldwide, the temperature scenario – if these targets are met – has dropped to 2.1C since April. That marks a 0.3C fall in the projection over the past six months thanks largely to the inclusion of US and China’s net zero targets, which have now been formalised in their climate strategies sent to the UN.
CAT’s analysis also set out a more ‘optimistic’ scenario far closer to the IEA’s projections based on mid-century net zero commitments, which it said if fully implemented with detailed policy measures and appropriate short term action could lead to a 1.8C world.
But Professor Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute – another CAT partner organisation – stressed that there needed to be urgent focus on delivering robust policies and commitments to accelerate climate action within the current decade, as many recent long-term net zero pledges lack the detail or credibility needed to deliver emissions reductions in line with a 1.5C scenario.
“While the wave of net zero targets appears like remarkable news, we can’t sit back and relax,” he said. “In the situation where, even with the new pledges, global emissions in 2030 will still be twice as high as required for 1.5°C, all countries must urgently look at what more they can do.”
In particular, the analysis stresses the need for far more ambitious efforts to phase-out coal and gas infrastructure in order to adhere to the UK COP26 Presidency’s mantra of “keeping 1.5 alive”.
Coal must be out of the power sector worldwide by 2030 in OECD countries, and then globally by 2040, it argues, to move the world on to a 1.5C trajectory. Moreover, major coal countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam must avoid making a switch to gas power, and instead shift straight from coal to clean power sources, the report argues.
“If the massive 2030 gap cannot be narrowed in Glasgow, governments must agree to come back next year, by COP27, with new and stronger targets,” the report states. “Today’s leaders need to be held to account for this massive 2030 gap. If we wait another five years and only discuss 2035 commitments, the 1.5C limit may well be lost.”
Green groups and climate experts, which have repeatedly stressed the importance of short term climate action within the 2020s, warned that ‘optimistic’ projections for future warming risk allowing the UK and other governments to unduly claim COP26 has delivered major successes, even without crunch talks over myriad contentious issues reaching agreement in Glasgow this week.
Greenpeace International’s executive director Jennifer Morgan described CAT’s projections as “devastating”, as she called on governments to “immediately set aside their differences and work with uncompromising vigour for a deal to save our common future” at COP26 this week.
“We have until the weekend to turn this thing around,” she warned. “That means countries agreeing how they’re going come back next year and every year after that until the gap to 1.5C is closed. The Ministers shouldn’t leave this city until they’ve nailed that.”
The latest projection will place further pressure on negotiators to try and drive an ambitious set of agreements before the gavel comes down on the Glasgow Summit at the end of the week, with a host of outstanding issues on climate finance, common time frames, carbon markets, adaptation, loss and damage far from reaching consensus.
Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary Ed Miliband described the CAT analysis as “an important reality check on the government’s attempt to greenwash Glasgow”, as he accused Number 10 of “COP26 spin”.
“The summit has failed to confront the scale of the action necessary, and they have undermined their own climate cause by over-claiming what they have achieved from coal to trees – talking up modest progress in Glasgow as transformational, with big emitters too often getting off the hook,” he said.
Responding to the CAT report, COP26 President Alok Sharma noted that there had been considerable progress since national climate action plans were submitted at the Paris Summit in 2015 that were estimated to put the world on track for around 4C of warming. But he acknowledged bolder action was needed to “keep 1.5C alive” and hinted the crucial cover text for the agreement could include proposals for countries to be required to submit updated plans more frequently than the current five yearly cycle.
